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The only candidate thought to have a chance to beat Karzai come August is the widely popular Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, a former Foreign Minister in Karzai's government. Although he is the clear favorite among people in Kabul, most here still feel that victory by Karzai is inevitable, not least because of perceived American favoritism. Perhaps to counter that perception Ambassador Eikenberry has been making a point to appear publicly with a number of major candidates, including Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani.
Last spring I wrote a short election summary for the Embassy of Afghanistan in Washington, DC. If you are interested you can download and read the file here.